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Decline in International Tourism Eases
- By Lucky George
- Published November 10th, 2009
- TravelWorld
- Unrated
INTERNATIONAL tourist arrivals worldwide are estimated to have declined by 7 per cent between January and August 2009. Destinations worldwide recorded a total of 600 million arrivals, down from 643 million in the same period of 2008.
Nevertheless, the downward trend that started in September last year may have begun to bottom out. Arrivals in the two high-season months of July and August declined by 3 per cent compared with a decrease of 8 per cent in the first half of the year, and data available for September points to a continuation of this upward trend. The UNWTO Confidence Index is also improving after two periods at a historic low.
The more than 330 experts surveyed worldwide by UNWTO confirm that confidence is picking up. In the latest survey, the percentage of experts with a negative outlook for the next four months has decreased from 62 per cent to 42 per cent while, for 30 per cent of experts, prospects are ‘equal’, and for 28 per cent they are ‘better’ or ‘much better’. “Throughout this year, the world’s tourism industry was faced with a large number of challenges, led by the global economic crisis, the credit crunch and rising unemployment, not to mention the influenza pandemic. Seldom in recorded tourism history has the industry had to contend with so many different issues at the same time,” said UNWTO Secretary-General. Taleb Rifai. “However, the negative trend that emerged during the second half of 2008 and intensified in 2009 is starting to show signs of receding,” he added. Within the aim of offering closer market monitoring during these challenging times, this is the first time UNWTO presents an estimate on international tourism receipts for the current year.
As experienced in previous crises, tourism earnings have suffered somewhat more than arrivals as consumers tend to trade down, stay closer to home and travel for shorter periods of time. Receipts from international tourism are estimated to have contracted in real terms by 9% to 10% in the first six months of 2009, i.e. 1 to 2 percentage points below the decline in international arrivals during that period -8 per cent.
Results for the first eight months of 2009 show those international tourist arrivals declined in all world regions, except in Africa, which bucked the global trend. Europe, the Middle East and the Americas were the hardest hit:
In Europe –8 per cent, destinations in Central and Eastern Europe were the most affected, but results for all other sub-regions were close to the average.
For Asia and the Pacific –5 per cent shows the clearest signs of improvement with growth already positive in August driven by the encouraging results of North-East Asia. In the Americas –7 per cent there are still no clear signs of a reversal in the current decline trend. Growth continued to be fairly negative during the second quarter as well as in the months of July and August. South America has shown the best performance so far -1 per cent. Meanwhile, the Middle East –8 per cent, though still well down on the growth levels of previous years, already saw a shift to positive growth between June and September. (data for the region is fairly volatile due to the influence of major religious events in tourism flows). Despite the global crisis, Africa’s grew +4 per cent, which was very positive, given the current difficult environment.
The softening in the rate of decline seen in the last months is expected to continue during the remainder of the year. As this is in line with the UNWTO’s initial projection, for the full year the forecast for international tourist arrivals is maintained at between –6 per cent to –4 per cent.
Nevertheless, the downward trend that started in September last year may have begun to bottom out. Arrivals in the two high-season months of July and August declined by 3 per cent compared with a decrease of 8 per cent in the first half of the year, and data available for September points to a continuation of this upward trend. The UNWTO Confidence Index is also improving after two periods at a historic low.
The more than 330 experts surveyed worldwide by UNWTO confirm that confidence is picking up. In the latest survey, the percentage of experts with a negative outlook for the next four months has decreased from 62 per cent to 42 per cent while, for 30 per cent of experts, prospects are ‘equal’, and for 28 per cent they are ‘better’ or ‘much better’. “Throughout this year, the world’s tourism industry was faced with a large number of challenges, led by the global economic crisis, the credit crunch and rising unemployment, not to mention the influenza pandemic. Seldom in recorded tourism history has the industry had to contend with so many different issues at the same time,” said UNWTO Secretary-General. Taleb Rifai. “However, the negative trend that emerged during the second half of 2008 and intensified in 2009 is starting to show signs of receding,” he added. Within the aim of offering closer market monitoring during these challenging times, this is the first time UNWTO presents an estimate on international tourism receipts for the current year.
As experienced in previous crises, tourism earnings have suffered somewhat more than arrivals as consumers tend to trade down, stay closer to home and travel for shorter periods of time. Receipts from international tourism are estimated to have contracted in real terms by 9% to 10% in the first six months of 2009, i.e. 1 to 2 percentage points below the decline in international arrivals during that period -8 per cent.
Results for the first eight months of 2009 show those international tourist arrivals declined in all world regions, except in Africa, which bucked the global trend. Europe, the Middle East and the Americas were the hardest hit:
In Europe –8 per cent, destinations in Central and Eastern Europe were the most affected, but results for all other sub-regions were close to the average.
For Asia and the Pacific –5 per cent shows the clearest signs of improvement with growth already positive in August driven by the encouraging results of North-East Asia. In the Americas –7 per cent there are still no clear signs of a reversal in the current decline trend. Growth continued to be fairly negative during the second quarter as well as in the months of July and August. South America has shown the best performance so far -1 per cent. Meanwhile, the Middle East –8 per cent, though still well down on the growth levels of previous years, already saw a shift to positive growth between June and September. (data for the region is fairly volatile due to the influence of major religious events in tourism flows). Despite the global crisis, Africa’s grew +4 per cent, which was very positive, given the current difficult environment.
The softening in the rate of decline seen in the last months is expected to continue during the remainder of the year. As this is in line with the UNWTO’s initial projection, for the full year the forecast for international tourist arrivals is maintained at between –6 per cent to –4 per cent.
