IN 2010 world grindings of cocoa beans, a proxy for world cocoa consumption, would amount to 3.6 million tonnes, reflecting an average annual increase of 2.1 percent from 2.8 million tonnes during the base period.
Consumption will continue to be concentrated in developed counties, which are expected to account for 64 percent of world cocoa consumption in 2010. Consumption in these countries is projected to increase at an annual rate of 2.2 percent from 1.8 million tonnes during the base period to 2.3 million tonnes in 2010.
Consumption in Europe is projected to grow by 1.7 percent per annum and reach 1.4 million tonnes. Europe is likely to continue to be the world’s largest cocoa consuming area, accounting for 40 percent of global cocoa consumption in 2010. Chocolate and cocoa based products in the EU are currently governed by a 2000 directive which authorises the replacement of cocoa butter by less expensive cocoa butter substitutes up to 5 of the total weight of the finished product. Under the Directive, chocolate products that contain vegetable fats other than cocoa butter may be marketed in the EU provided that their labelling is supplemented by a statement.
Member countries have until August 2003 to implement national laws to enforce this directive. Consumption in North America, the world’s second largest cocoa consuming area, is likely to grow by 3.6 percent per annum and reach 703 000 tonnes. In the former Soviet Union/CIS, consumption is expected to grow by 0.8 percent per annum from 65 000 tonnes to 71 000 tonnes, reflecting expected increase in income in these countries. In Japan, consumption is expected to increase from 48 000 tonnes during the base period to 56 000 tonnes in 2010.
Consumption in developing countries as a group is expected to amount to 1.3 million tonnes by 2010, an annual growth rate of 1.8 percent. Africa, where capital formation for grindings has grown rapidly over the past decade, will remain the largest consuming region in this group, accounting for 35 percent of the consumption of developing countries. The share of consumption in Latin America and Caribbean, where the relative cost for grindings are higher compared to Africa, is expected to decrease from 32 percent to 28 percent. In the Far East, where per capita consumption is still small, the share in consumption is projected to increase from 31 percent during the same period to 34 percent by 2010.
By 2010 the world cocoa market is expected to be approximately in balance. Beans will continue to form the large majority of cocoa exports, despite some increase of processing capacity in producing countries, especially those in Africa. Global cocoa bean exports are projected to reach 3.0 million tonnes by 2010, an average annual growth rate of 2.8 percent.
Total exports from Africa are expected to grow by 2.8 percent annually from 1.7 million tonnes during the base period to 2.3 million tonnes in 2010, with Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana and Nigeria achieving an annual average growth rate of about 3 percent. Exports from Côte d’Ivoire are projected to increase to 1.5 million tonnes by 2010, or 51 percent of the global cocoa exports, although this growth is subject to the development of its current political instability. Exports from Ghana would reach 469 000 tonnes or 16 percent of the world total. The share of African exports in the world market is expected to remain stable, about 78 percent of the global exports.