“The crucial thing after 9/11 is that the calculus of risk changed” - Former British Prime Minister Tony Blair on British (Mis)adventure in Iraq
Background
THE business environment around the world now is like the quotation above that stem from the recent inquiry into the activities of British government before, during and after the Iraq War. The paradigm shifted after the economic bubble of 2007, calculus of risk  in the financial sector changed and the repercussions is being felt around the business circle all over the world, either profit or non-profit, government or private even within family circle. For effective growth and adequate value for all stakeholders, strategy formulations must be based on scientific assumptions, extrapolation of facts and building of concrete scenarios but in recent past even that have not stopped a lot of organization from meeting their waterloo. The calculus of risk, its attendant formula and all the permutation associated with it have had to be changed in order to arrive at a position to deal will the new risk associated with starting and running an enterprise. How then will businesses be able to calculate the risk inherent in their enterprise and get prepared to quash, delay or deflect it? Tony Blair in his speech to the Board of Inquiry into the war in Iraq said they never envisage that outside interference from Al-Qaeda and Iran will have so much influence on the bearing of that nation after the war. The same can be said of the corporate world today. Strategic managers that use narrow assumptions and skewed permutations as their starting point will never get the future scenarios right.

Paradigm Shift
The era of embarking on an enterprise without properly assessing all the “known” and “unknowns” is gone, most of the bank executive that are facing difficult times in Nigeria nowadays never reckoned that there will be a day where they will have to deal with “Tsunami Sanusi”, maybe if they have been prepared for the “Unknown Unknown” they may have been subjected to less shock and ridicule. The calculation of inherent risk in any enterprise today have now gone beyond the immediate confine of that organization, the effect of decisions or indecision in one part of the world are having tremendous effect on organizations in the  most remote area of the world. How then do we get ourselves, our organizations and all associated resources to be in synergy with each other and the environment in which they operate? How then do we get corporate resources geared towards getting prepared to deal with this shift in paradigm? What do we need to do to understand this new calculus that will reduce the risk we will face in the future?

Getting it Right 
Risk can never and will never be eliminated, but those who manage it better stand a better chance of making their endeavours a success. Aside from all the tools, techniques, tactics and models that have been laid down in order to mitigate risk, there is a simple two-way rule that may put you ahead of the game

The Z+1 Principle
One of the biggest problems of leaders in and outside of corporate world is the belief that they are the best thing that ever happened to their organization, industry of even country. To calculate the risk right in today’s business world, leaders must be ready to accept the fact that their knowledge will only carry the organization as far as both the internal and external environment will allow them and someone else may possess the extra edge that turn the organization around for good or jeopardize its growth. So even if you know the A-Z of business management like Jack Welch, Warren Buffet and Bill Gates or if your organization possess the capacity that is greater than that of Coca-cola, Microsoft and GE combined you are only as good as your last success and the quest for success may sometime be impeded by the “unknown knowns” and the “known unknowns” and the “unknown unknowns”. So there is a need to approach every risk- based analysis with the mindset that the process to add value to an organization must be done with beliefs that what is known is a minute aspect of the permutations or assumptions that will have to be taken into consideration in the process of putting strategy together. The environment including competitors, consumers, regulators and government must be presumed to be a step ahead of your intentions, it may lead to an overkill in the end if they are behind in your assumption but that is better than be drowned by the sharks.

Golden Fish Principle
Organizations must return to the core value of their business or stick to it if they are just starting off in the entrepreneurial arena. The golden fish does not have a hiding place, therefore organizations that want to have sustainable growth  must have integrity, be reliable and posses good reputation. Consumers and other stakeholders will see beyond facade, therefore it will pay in the long run to be real to the world and true to your word, most of the problem in the financial sector all over the world including Nigeria today stem from the fact that “what some organizations say they are, is not actually what they turn out to be”. Integrity, reliability and reputation is key to a brand value so calculating risk in the future will entail transparency on the part of those who want to calculate risks in on their path. “Those who sell sand as salt end up being paid with stones instead of cash”

Action Plan
Calculation of risk is a dynamic process and it must be approached with a mindset that will make all assumptions that will be relevant to future projections of an organization. Cast your net wide, imagine the unimaginable and look for infraction where everything is settled now.