(L-R) Sanusi Lamido with hios prize as the best Central Bank governor in Africa, flanked by Sarah Alade (right); Bisi Onasanya, CEO, First Bank of Nigeria Plc (2nd right); Reginald Ihejiahi, CEO, Fidelity Bank Plc (left); Oba Otudeko, chairman of First Bank (2nd left), at a recent ceremony in Washington DC.

NIGERIA’S embattled economy may be on its way up again if the prediction of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is anything to go by. In its review of countries’ prospects, the IMF noted that Nigeria’s oil demand strengthened more than expected in the first half of 2010, primarily reflecting stronger-than-projected global activity and an increase in Chinese oil demand above what would have been expected on the basis of activity.
IMF noted in the report that “current data indicates that global oil demand rose by 2.7 per cent on an annual basis in the first half of the year, the strongest year-over-year increase since 2004”. The report also indicated that while demand has risen more than expected in advanced as well as emerging and developing economies, the latter still accounts for virtually all the growth in demand.
Nigeria’s positive growth projection is based on the discovery that oil demand in China increased by 14 per cent in the first half of the year exceeding real GDP growth by some three percentage points. There is the belief that this increase will also jack up oil production in the regions that have contract with China, especially Nigeria.
The IMF also anticipates a sharp increase in OPEC production within the remaining part of the year. “Oil demand will continue to rise as the global recovery progresses, with the buoyancy determined in part by the strength of the expansion in activity”, the IMF concluded.
Corroborating the IMF report, Olusegun Aganga, Nigeria’s minister of finance, noted that it is possible that “Africa’s lions” like Nigeria, with its 6.0 per cent GDP growth last year and a robust GDP growth of 7.4 in the first half of this year could rival Asia’s Tigers and the BRIC’s in the near future.
IMF’s growth projection puts Nigeria among the about 15 African countries with GDP growth of 5.0 per cent in current rating. The report also said that growth in sub-Saharan Africa is greatly accelerating.
Thus, Nigeria’s output growth is expected to accelerate above 7.4 per cent in 2011. The IMF position is largely dependent on the anticipated rise in oil revenue.
There are no indications as to the possibility of any reasonable growth in the country’s non-oil sector.