April Polls: British Researchers Tip Jonathan as Winner
- By Nik Ogbulie
- Published March 14th, 2011
- News
- Unrated
Business and political risk analysts at London-based Business Monitor International (BMI) have predicted that President Goodluck Jonathan will win the April presidential election.
BusinessWorld Intelligence can reveal that the business and political risk analysts, in their current study on the Nigerian economy and polity predicated their prediction on the outcome of the 2011 presidential primaries which they said produced characteristics that justified their earlier reports on the impending elections and which also have the indications of being sustained up to the election period.
“Goodluck Jonathan’s resounding victory in the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) primaries strengthens our long-held view that he will be elected to a fresh term as president in 2011.The scale of support for his candidacy with the PDP also suggests that the party is less divided than previously thought, increasing the chances that it may yet be given a strong mandate in April. In the light of these factors, we reiterate our positive view on Nigerian stocks, which we believe hold very significant upside potential”, the report says.
The analysts also noted that by the resounding victory at the primaries, Jonathan defied widespread expectations that he would face a tough battle against rival Atiku Abubakar, and has demonstrated his strength as a candidate capable of winning decisive victory in the general elections scheduled for April. “As we have argued since he first took over from the late Umaru Yar’Adua, we believe that Jonathan will win the 2011 poll: results from PDP primaries have only reconfirmed our conviction. Such an outcome would have positive implication for the economy, as well as for financial markets, which were already showing signs of enthusiasm the following morning”, the researchers noted.
The analysts noted that the development will now determine how the opposition will choose to organise itself over the coming election. They noted that the only challenge that can jolt the Jonathan chances could be a possible alliance among the opposition groups, but they quickly ruled out such occurrence based on the issues of incompatibility and ego. They also stated that the idea of a consensus candidate never held any water.
Doubting the power of a Northern coalition as a trump card, the analysts concluded: “if the combined support of Babangida, Gusau, Saraki and Atiku was not sufficient to challenge Jonathan in primaries, then there is little chance that an even smaller coalition could unseat him in general elections. Of course the pattern of voting in the contest for the PDP is not a perfect indicator of how the popular vote will proceed, but it does provide an indication of the strength of Northern unity”.
The analysts also doubt the possibility of the core North tinkering and willing to band together behind a single ‘super-candidate’ come April.
BusinessWorld Intelligence can reveal that the business and political risk analysts, in their current study on the Nigerian economy and polity predicated their prediction on the outcome of the 2011 presidential primaries which they said produced characteristics that justified their earlier reports on the impending elections and which also have the indications of being sustained up to the election period.
“Goodluck Jonathan’s resounding victory in the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) primaries strengthens our long-held view that he will be elected to a fresh term as president in 2011.The scale of support for his candidacy with the PDP also suggests that the party is less divided than previously thought, increasing the chances that it may yet be given a strong mandate in April. In the light of these factors, we reiterate our positive view on Nigerian stocks, which we believe hold very significant upside potential”, the report says.
The analysts also noted that by the resounding victory at the primaries, Jonathan defied widespread expectations that he would face a tough battle against rival Atiku Abubakar, and has demonstrated his strength as a candidate capable of winning decisive victory in the general elections scheduled for April. “As we have argued since he first took over from the late Umaru Yar’Adua, we believe that Jonathan will win the 2011 poll: results from PDP primaries have only reconfirmed our conviction. Such an outcome would have positive implication for the economy, as well as for financial markets, which were already showing signs of enthusiasm the following morning”, the researchers noted.
The analysts noted that the development will now determine how the opposition will choose to organise itself over the coming election. They noted that the only challenge that can jolt the Jonathan chances could be a possible alliance among the opposition groups, but they quickly ruled out such occurrence based on the issues of incompatibility and ego. They also stated that the idea of a consensus candidate never held any water.
Doubting the power of a Northern coalition as a trump card, the analysts concluded: “if the combined support of Babangida, Gusau, Saraki and Atiku was not sufficient to challenge Jonathan in primaries, then there is little chance that an even smaller coalition could unseat him in general elections. Of course the pattern of voting in the contest for the PDP is not a perfect indicator of how the popular vote will proceed, but it does provide an indication of the strength of Northern unity”.
The analysts also doubt the possibility of the core North tinkering and willing to band together behind a single ‘super-candidate’ come April.
